So what comfort can she take from her victory? surely her 7000 majority over Labours Chris Ostrowski will be enough to soothe her? even though the seat next year will be fought on the revised less favourable boundaries than was the case at the by election. (the new parliamentary boundaries only applying from the next general election)
Well, only time will tell but the real winner from last weeks poll is difficult to determine when you compare the votes cast for each of the main parties last Thursday with those from the 2005 election. Look for yourself:
Labour 2005 21,097 2009 6243 a loss of 14,854 votes
Conservative 2005 15,638 2009 13,591 a loss of 2047 votes
Lib Dem 2005 7616 2009 4083 a loss of 3533 votes
That makes a staggering drop in the votes for the three main parties from 44,300 in 2005 to 26700 in 2009 a drop in support for the combined tally of the big three of 17,600 lost votes
17,600! thats enough to win the contest outright, and at a by election prior to a general election that David Cameron's Tory party look favourites to win it is inexcusable that the Tory vote that turned out to support their candidate should fall. Labours loss was down by a staggering 70% from their 2005 support and with turnout only marginally down from 60% to 45% this was far more than a simple case of their loyal and faithful staying at home. The Lib Dems meanwhile seem to be shrinking before our eyes, becoming also rans and struggling to pick up any floating voters who now seem to prefer to vote elsewhere.
Of course UKIP (1122 to 4068) and the Greens (1252 to 3350) both did well accumilating an extra 5044 votes between them since 2005. But the bigger picture seems to be one of major discontent with the main three parties.
I believe my old friend Ian Gibson should have stood last week as an Independent, and perhaps he will do so next year. Despite the claims that he was wrong to allow his daughter to live with him in his London flat (I would have done the same) or that he shouldn't have sold the flat to her at a reduced rate (slightly more controversial, but are people saying that if he had sold it for more profit to a stranger then that would have been OK?) Ian is still well respected in the town.
It seems that Labour Party supporters in Norwich when asked on the doorstep felt that he had been harshly treated when compared with certain others in Labours higher ranks, and they were right. The kangeroo court which barred him standing for re-election cared little for the facts and only wished to take the opportunity of getting rid of one of the awkward squad who actually stood up for his constituents and refused to be controlled by the whips office. There will be MPs from all partys standing in the general election next year with far more guilty consciences than Ian, and with so many people deserting the main three parties in such huge numbers and a need for more Independent members at Westminster then I hope he considers standing again, but this time without the party straightjacket.
Just out of interest Tony, how long do you have to be with a party before you can cross the floor?
ReplyDelete(Please don't do the "I told you so..." thingy that my folks would normally ~ and will ~ do, thanks kindly!)
Technically, only MP's and Councillors can "cross the floor" as they walk from one side of the chamber to the other so to speak.
ReplyDeleteParty members can come and go and join whoever they like when they like. Personally I have lost faith in all of them, which is why I now prefer to hold NIV as a collective of Independents rather than a party.
After all if I would never want to be part of a party which had accepted me as a member!
(http://thestjohnlady.blogspot.com/2009/07/another-strange-way-to-spend-your.html
ReplyDeleteJust for your plesure, and to have a good laugh at)
You know when you get one of them "oh dear" moments?
I really need to spot them sooner I think!!!
I’m no longer sure about this anymore!!
(You’d think I’d learnt by now wouldn’t you!)
Tony
ReplyDeleteInteresting post but you are overlooking a few salient facts:
1.This by-election counted for nothing in real terms.Its result altered nothing to the Parliamentary arithmetic.There was no pressing need for an electorate, which has become disillusioned with many things (Party)political to move itself and every incentive to sit it out on the sofa at home.
3.Those that did vote could have chosen to vote in their droves for the minor (protest) Parties.Ater all, the climate has rarely been more favourable for them to do just that.A few did.The majority of those who voted decided to stick with the mainstream Parties.
4.The Tories not only won handsomely but also increased their share of the vote - on a reduced turnout.They succeeded in turning a Labour majority of 5000+ into a Tory majority of 7000+.A swing from Labour to conservative of over 14%.No mean achievement for a Party mired in moats and manure.
5.The solid Tory performance augurs well for the Party's prospects in 2010, when the chips are down at a General Election.
6.The Tories fielded a local lady with youth on her side.
7.Libs fell back.Classic repository for by-election protest votes went nowhere depsite the LDs' legendary campaigning skills and ability to hitch their campaign to any bandwagon in sight.A failure.
So, Tony, when you look at it again, I think you should concede that the Blues performance was solid and took the Crewe & Nantwich win a step further forward.Dave & co can reflect on a clean, hard fought campaign, with an excellent candidate,the likes of which would be an asset on our benches at County Hall.Need more like her!See you at August NCC meeting.
Michael Clarke
Michael,
ReplyDeleteIt's good to recieve a post from you, I hope you enjoy my rantings.
One of the refreshing benifits of no longer being a party animal is that I have found I can see through the smoke and mirrors and all aprty's claim success at all elections regardless of where they finish or how well or how badly they finish.
My point and I hope it comes across is that at a by election so close to a possible general election that the Tory vote should have stood up and indeed have risen from those who supported the party at the last general election, but it didn't it fell back.
Labour's stay at home vote is understandable to a degree, but as I point out the numbers of voters who abandoned the three main parties since 2005 was a massive 17,600, making Chloe Smiths 13,591 seem puny.
There is no doubt that last Thursday as far as the headlines go was a very good night for the Tories, and a disaster for Labour, but a drilling down into the figure will have many from all central offices worried as to where mainstream politics is headed.