EU Reform, the answer on the ballot paper will be Yes or No, but what exactly is the question?

David Cameron began his much publicised European tour of capitals and leaders this week in a vain attempt to prove to both his own party and the nation at large that he is serious about EU reform and that he is willing to take the UK out of Europe if his marginal majority government do not get their own way over a yet to be published set of reforms probably centered around immigration control, and a loser union. Meanwhile the Queen in her address to both Houses confirmed that the referendum within the UK will take place before the end of 2017.

Despite the lack of detail, despite the uncertainty surrounding how he will be received firstly on his 36 hour mini hand shake tour and then in the coming months, it is staggering to discover at such an early stage in the negotiations that we therefore actually have an agreed and published question! “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?” YES or NO. But is that yes or no depending on the substance of the reform? Is that a yes or no depending on whether there is any guarantee that any discussed reform will ever be ratified? Is that a yes or no subject to the other 27 states or territories also saying yes or no in subsequent referendums? Will our yes or no be subject to treaty change? If so how long will that take after the referendum?  I guess to some degree any NO vote despite it being disastrous for the UK is the easier outcome for the government to deal with, as we just withdraw. But how will a yes vote ever hold any true validity if set against such a sea of uncertainty and visible only through such a misty cloud of confusion.

I am now personally so confused that I am forced into thinking the unthinkable, and saying that I actually agree for once with Nigel Farage, not on where we both individually stand on our preferred outcome of the referendum, but on the premise that the whole EU referendum is now little more than a fudge, a trick of smoke and mirrors, a sleight of hand, the referendum is a dead referendum, it is deceased, bereft of life, shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir.

It is an Ex referendum where your X won’t be worth the lead in your polling station pencil.

But don’t expect the mainstream UK media to take such a dismissive attitude to the bill, don’t expect

out MP’s and Lords in the chamber to worry themselves about the niceties of meaningful reform over manifesto delivery of the mechanism for a referendum, and prepare yourself for a poll fest of opinion and counter opinion linking that yes or no question to every conceivable variation of the subject matter imaginable. The Sun will no doubt run a “Would you vote Yes or No if the new EU deal bans page 3 Girls?” The Mail and Express will ask the nation “Should Benefit claimants get the vote?” and The Observer and IoS will no doubt sell endless Pre Referendum EU city tours.

But the real poll, the actual vote, in my humble opinion will be a complete non event, no opportunity for real reform which wrestles control away from the EU corporate giants or gives power back to the people of Europe, no challenge to TTIP, the EU Ministers would never let us have a say, let alone a vote on anything as important as signing away our rights as a democracy to place nation state law over the commercial interests of world capitalism. 

My own party, The Green Party have a simple YES, YES, YES policy on Europe, YES to Reform, YES to a referendum and YES to Europe. But this already discredited new Tory government have their own less attractive option on offer for UK voters. NO meaningful reform, NO voice on the decisions that really matter and NO limit to the spin and political posturing to be deployed in convincing us all that Dave won the day for the Union, all of course in Churchillian fashion!

DO LOST PALESTINIAN LIVES HAVE EQUAL VALUE TO UK LIVES? IF NOT WHAT IS THE EXCHANGE RATE?

The daily tragedy, death and destruction of Gaza, its civilian population reduced to no more than expendable collateral damage to an out of control brutal Israeli Defence Force do not make for good holiday viewing. But as someone who refuses to accept that lives in different parts of the world have differing values and currencies I have tried, often in vain to keep up with events for the 2 weeks I was in Southern Spain.

I could understand why whenever news of the atrocities came onto a TV screen in a bar or restaurant, why the staff quickly changed channels, but it still made me angry. Tiger Wood’s back problems and Frank Lampard’s loan to Manchester City just seem to have far more recreational value than the plight of innocent families blown to pieces by British made weaponry in the name of “the right of defence”

But then things are very much the same at home.

People run away from things that they don’t wish to see, they know how horrible it is, but they don’t want to confront it, they don’t want to look, it’s not a question of denial it’s just natural not to want to be face to face with such horror. The pictures on our TV screens and in the newspapers are in themselves are a watered down version of the unfaceable reality, it is best for us to view to view death from not just a geographical distance but also from a digital one. This sanitised reporting is again a response to our internal discomfort with the truth, the newspapers reporters and photographers and TV commentators are fully aware that if they make us view this macabre death scene in all its full gore and horror that they will be blamed themselves by the public for making them look, making them see.

Thankfully though despite the censorship the world is now seeing, is now facing up to the fact that “something must be done”  But just are the something’s that should be done? Well we can start with a sustainable ceasefire,time alone will tell whether or not the current cease in hostilities has any lasting impact, but we can but hope that it is a start. but then we have had plenty of similar cease fires in the past each being replaced with a return to even more killing. 

We could as a nation once David Cameron has worked out how to spell disproportionate, call for UN action, but we all know that every attempt to make Israel answerable to the world community is thwarted by the US veto on UN votes. It is still very clear that the USA values the Jewish vote far higher than Palestinian life, so we are back to that currency question again in a politics versus people exchange rate system. So what is left? Or more importantly what is left that is worth trying and likely to succeed?

Well we certainly need to continue the current talks we need a “regional” figure to oversee any negotiations and we need to remove from the scene all those who have failed so badly to use the times between conflict to bring about a two sided solution.

We should therefore start with a call for Tony Blair as the Quartets Middle East Peace Envoy to step aside, our hapless former PM who himself took us into the equally horrific illegal war in Iraq has in recent months completely lost the plot. His continued absence from Gaza and his repeated support for Israel’s right to defend itself including recent Israeli TV interviews defending the IDF military response show a remarkable lack of diplomacy and impartiality and place him far too firmly in Netanyahu’s pocket to be taken seriously anymore.

But is our current Prime minister any better? Certainly not, arms sales have increased dramatically to Israel since his taking of office and we now have the contradictory farce of spending UK aid money to build up humanitarian and Social support within Gaza, whilst taking Israel’s blood money to provide sophisticated weaponry to destroy the very aid projects we funded the building of!  I have never been a fan of Baroness Varsi but I must applaud her for accepting in her well-publicised resignation letter that the UK policy to the current crisis is “morally indefensible” and “not in British national interests” and

The end game has to be a political two state solution agreed between Israel and Palestine confirming a viable Palestinian State and agreed removal of Israeli settlements on Palestinians Land this coupled with assurances for Israel in relation to their ever more demanding security concerns.

The “Egypt” proposals should also take seriously the little publicly commented on Hamas 10 point truce initiate. For those (the many I guess) who have not seen this proposal the main points are as follows 1: Withdrawal of Israeli tanks from the Gaza border 2: Freeing all the prisoners that were arrested after the killing of the three youths. 3:Lifting the siege and opening the border crossings to commerce and people 4: Establishing an international seaport and airport which would be under U.N. supervision 5: Increasing the permitted fishing zone to 10 kilometers 6: Internationalizing the Rafah Crossing and placing it under the supervision of the U.N. and some Arab nations 7:  International forces on the borders 8: Easing conditions for permits to pray at the Al Aqsa Mosque 9 :Prohibition on Israeli interference in the reconciliation agreement 10:Reestablishing an industrial zone and improvements in further economic development in the Gaza Strip.

But whilst a continued and lasting peace remains for the international community to be without doubt the most desirable and urgent need the world must also own and answer the wider questions of justice and accountability of all parties in relation to the atrocities carried out by both sides. Hamas rocket attacks on Israel may be futile and dealt with at ease by Israel’s Iron Dome defence system, but they are still indiscriminate acts of violence carried out by an elected government against a civilian population, but Israel refuses to sign the International Convention on Human Rights belittles the role of the International Criminal Court and prefers to play hardball with world concerns, so any complaint by them to the Court prosecutor for investigation and trial of Hamas’s actions are a non starter. Palestinian however are now a recognised UN state, can sign the convention and should ask the prosecutor to hold those responsible in the Israeli for giving the orders to butcher innocent children and families to account.

Peace and Reconciliation are non negotiable partners, long standing peace can never hold without tackling head on the thorny  issues of justice and accountability, such was the case in South Africa and Northern Ireland and such we hope will be the case in Israel Palestine.

The old adage “No justice, No Peace” may be over used and under delivered on but for Palestine it will be a pre requisite for the acceptance of a permanent Israeli state as it neighbour and not its prisoner and executioner

A LOW TIDE EBBS AND A HIGH NOON BECKONS FOR THOSE WHO SHRINK THE STATE AND SINK ITS PEOPLE

I wonder if anyone in No 10 Downing Street reads my blog or the Herald And Post website?? If not perhaps they should start to!

Those who read my earlier blog warning the Prime Minister of ‘trouble ahead” should he continue to fail to respond appropriately to the flooding crisis rocking Britain will know only too well that the “events dear boy events” trap was set wide open for him to fall into, and how spectacularly he has fallen.

Of course all politicians and particularly Prime Ministers and Government Ministers will come under fire in times of severe crisis, that’s only natural, but its how they respond or even more importantly IF they respond that matters, and the response from our government on this issue so far has been woeful.

But how can they respond, how can they call upon the state to respond when the state itself has been dismantled to the point of paralysis?

If you cut the Environment Agency’s budget year on year (down 36% since 2010) reduce its staffing levels to the bone (550 job losses last year another 1700 planned in the year to come) then you know that the agency would not be in a position to meet the ever increasing demands  placed upon it.

Equally if you cut Local Authority budgets year on year, farm out all the services to the private sector and reduce “local Government” down to pre war levels then as much as they might like they are not in a position to respond to the crisis.

It’s the same for our Police Forces, our Fire and Rescue Services, who through cuts to front line staff are no longer able to release “spare” capacity. Our Social Work teams are not able to contribute to emergency plans any more due to crippling case loads and chronic under staffing.

And so when the floods come, the true nature of David Camerons “Big Society” adventure is laid bare for all to see.

Its DIY Britain, house holders ferrying sand and bags from the local B&Q to try and save their homes, Farmers setting up makeshift ferry crossings with their tractors, Local Volunteers themselves worried about their own homes, being stretched beyond any acceptable level to fill in where the previous statutory agencies have failed to deliver.

Today on the Lunchtime news a local “unpaid” volunteer flood warden was interviewed and half way through the interview broke down in tears of frustration, pleading for someone from the government, anybody to step in and respond to their crisis.

Her tears were washed away in the ever rising tide, meanwhile “Dave” will chair another Cobra committee and Eric Pickles will try and offload some of the blame on those whose pockets his department has picked over the years, and more and more people will lose faith with our lack of local democracy and inadequate national intervention.

Some of those whose homes have been flooded will I am sure be less pleased to be told now that their Council Tax is still amongst the lowest in the country, and few if any will be feeling that we are “all in this together” 

In a period of 3 years this awful Tory/Liberal coalition has ripped apart the very foundation of our civic society, they have shrunken the state, removed the safety net, and even more unforgivably they have turned their collective heads eyes and ears away from those calling out so desperately for help.

We in Northampton now the full extent of the misery that is bought about by such severe flooding events, I can honestly say that as the MP for the town during the 1998 Floods that the experience changed my outlook forever, leading more than ever to the point of campaigning to make government stand up to its responsibilities and to act on funding flood prevention and take seriously the challenge of Climate Change.

Often in that period since 1998 under two different Governments I have had to come to a conclusion that “they” our political masters were not listening.

And still the cries for help fall on deaf ears!

EYES ON THE WRONG FLOOD

Its not too difficult to determine a point in time when a political pendulum swings, not too difficult to ascertain when a politicians stock is on the wane, and as has been said a hundred times before its "events dear events" which shift governments more than actions. But inaction and or the wrong actions are as equally revealing.

Over the Xmas period and into January 2014 those events and inactions and wrong choices have been made by our Prime Minister in plenty, probably without him even realising what was happening, perhaps he took his eye off of the ball? perhaps he was badly advised? whatever it was, it now looks odds on that next years general Election will lead into more coalition, but this time with the Tory Party firmly in opposition.

Their position was shaky to say the least, the country remains unconvinced that the economy is on the turn and less convinced that it is as a result of anything George Osborne or the Tory Party have done and in the months to come with inflation turning to deflation and interests rates rising to match other cost of living hikes the pips will well and truly start to squeak.

But David Cameron's new year woes have as much to do with him and his party believing that the rest of us "think" like Dave and George, and that their concerns are our concerns. As a result they were too busy making sweeping statements on immigration to notice the real tide of woe engulfing Britain.

They had their eyes on the wrong flood!

Victor Spirescu, a 30 year old Romanian handyman looked rather bemused when he arrived as one of just two migrants on the first flight of the year  from Transylvania. Victor and his indistinguishable fellow Romanian traveller WERE the flood of migrants to hit our shores as warned by UKIP and half of the Front bench in a downward race to the bottom of EU race relations

29m Romanians and Bulgarians will flood Britain looking for work according to UKIP, thats the entire population of both Countries!  The Tories ever keen to trump their new worst enemy rushed through new legislation to curb the impact the invasion would have on benefits and even Ed Milliband chipped in not wanting to be left out of the xenophobe club by declaring that it was right to address "understandable" fears and calling for EU loop holes to be closed.

But it was Victor who spoke with the most conviction and clarity and honesty when he told the hoards of reporters and officials awaiting his arrival at Luton Airport that

"I don't come to rob your country, I come to work, to make money, to go home"

In the 3 weeks following Victors scary welcome to the UK immigration records show that the "tidal wave" of immigrants had risen to a shocking high of 30!

Meanwhile the defenders of Britain's coastline and inland waterways were playing King Canute with a completely different enemy, climate change and severe weather wreaked havoc as thousands of UK homes were flooded, and families evacuated out of their houses over the Xmas break and beyond as they endured three weeks of torrential rain and gale force winds. The worst weather for 20 years the Met office declared, no part of the UK could escape the soaking, but where was Dave?

By the time he got to Kent to face the cameras local residents were all but  ready to lynch him.

"We were left abandoned" said one another angry at the Prime Ministers belated visit said  

"Until Cameron came we had been left abandoned,When we knew he was coming this morning the police showed up, the council turned up but until then the only people helping us were volunteers. It was just a publicity stunt."

We know how they feel in Northampton, and despite the initial interest by the cameras and the politicians it takes months and years for communities to recover from such devastating flood events, something my colleagues in the House of Commons at the time failed to understand and grasp. Its seems as if they still don't get it?

Oh Dear Dave, bad call that, but then again the Environment Agency wouldn't and couldn't have been their for local residents anyway could they? as Dave's government has axed 550 staff from the EA in recent months as part of the "austerity" cuts and slashed the flood defence budget year on year! They put a little bit back in last year and announced it as "new money" but is still remains well below even the 2010 level of investment whilst the water it seems and the anger continues to rise.

I guess this is part of Dave's cutting back on the Green crap? but he has had his eyes on the wrong flood

Whatever the cause of his woes, the outcome is in my view crystal clear.

Bring on Prime Minister number 54

CAMERON, LYING CONNIVING LITTLE GIT? YOU DECIDE

Regular followers of this blog will recall the short series I posted about 12 months ago trying to explain the perilous state of the UK economy in plain english.

If you missed them and want to catch up, they still remain valid and accurate in their conclusions and can be found here:

http://tonyclarkeindependent.blogspot.co.uk/2011/11/its-economy-stupid.html

http://tonyclarkeindependent.blogspot.co.uk/2011/12/its-economy-stupid-part-two-micawber.html

http://tonyclarkeindependent.blogspot.co.uk/2011/12/it-economy-stupid-part-3-around-world.html

The point I and indeed many others were making throughout these and similar posts is that the coalitions reckless cut and burn anti growth budgets would inevitably lead to the strangling of any green shoots of recovery,  and that as a result we would still be borrowing huge amounts year on year, and in doing so getting ourselves ever  more debt than when we started, this in fact, coupled with the then Euro crisis was the only probable outcome of the coalition governments cut and burn policy..

But to listen to the Chancellor and the PM, they would have you believe that WE not THEY are in the wrong.

So what do you call someone who knowingly tells an untruth? or is being economical with the actualite? someone who tells porkies? whose language is dishonest?

In my world you call them a lying conniving little git, but let's be kind and let you be the judge as to who is lying to who

On the 23rd January 2013 in a scripted party political broadcast on behalf of the Conservative Party the Prime Minister David Cameron said the following:

"So this government has had to make some difficult decisions, we are making progress, we're paying down Britain's debts"

Very clear there then, and when he came into office our debts were about £750 bn. So what has he paid them down to after 2 years of austerity ? when asked by the Tories in the same party political broadcast the public said it had perhaps gone down by about 2%, before being told by the Tories it ihad actually reduced by 25%! This 25% reduction figure would put the debt now at around the £562 bn mark or perhaps given the lack of growth it's not quite that good and we still owe £600 bn?

Now if you agree with any of the above then unfortunately you and the Prime Minister are both well dillusined and way out in your mathematics.. You see our debt today in 2012 is in fact £1,100bn.

SO UK DEBT SINCE THE COALITION CAME TO POWER HAS IN FACT RISEN BY £350 bn

Or in other words it has grown by almost 50%, now that wasn't mentioned in the broadcast!

The 25% reduction figure they mention is nothing more than the reduction in the total annual borrowing amount (the deficit, between income and spending)  We are simply borrowing 25% less each year as we cut public spending on services and pay more out on welfare, at this rate our borrowing will have risen to £1,500 bn by 2018, or in other words doubled since 2010

For clarity here are the official figures from the ONS (Office for National Statistics) as at Dec 2012

Not wanting to be left out the Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, desperate as always to match the PM gaffe for gaffe made his own statement saying that the government is:

"wiping the slate clean of debt"

Well Nick, just how clean will it be by the time you leave office in 2015? as according to the ONS below we will be £550 bn more in debt than when you took up your office!

All of the above was revealed in the usually Tory friendly Spectator, who also helpfully told us that those who have fallen for the government's wicked deceit are in fact in the majority, as just 6% of the public actually know that the national debt is rising not falling.

Should we congratulate the government on getting away with such a whopping great falsehood? or be angry at them and the press for allowing such a deception?

I am in the later camp and I believe that the standard of political integrity and honesty has fallen to an all time low, and it;s high time the UK press got off its knees and told the British public the truth.

Our children and grandchildren will not thank us for closing our ears to the truth or swallowing the untruths of the great and the good, for all their sakes it's time for a bit of good old fashioned unbiased honest political commentary.

WHAT FLASHMAN DID NEXT...............

"Flashman, be it said, was big and strong of his age. He played well at all games where pluck wasn't much wanted, and managed generally to keep appearances where it was; and having a bluff off-hand manner, which passed for heartiness, and considerable powers of being pleasant when he liked, went down with the school in general for a good fellow enough. Even in the School-house, by dint of his command of money, the constant supply of good things which he kept up, and his adroit toadyism, he had managed to make himself not only tolerated but rather popular amongst his own contemporaries; although Young Clegg scarcely spoke to him, and one or two others of the right sort like old Binner's showed their opinions of him whenever a chance offered. But the wrong sort happened to be in the ascendant just now, and so Flashman was a formidable enemy for small boys. This soon became plain enough. Flashman left no slander unspoken, and no deed undone, which could in any way hurt his victims, or isolate them from the rest of the house. One by one most of the other rebels fell away from them, while Flashman's cause prospered, and several other fifth-form boys began to look black at them and ill-treat them as they passed about the house. By keeping out of bounds, or at all events out of the house and quadrangle, all day, and carefully barring themselves in at night, the poorest boys managed to hold on without feeling very miserable; but it was as much as they could do. Greatly were they drawn then towards Old Labour, who, in an uncouth way, began to take a good deal of notice of them, and once or twice came to their study when Flashman was there, who immediately decamped in consequence. The boys thought that Old Labour must have been watching.

David Cameron's apparent uneasiness with comparisons between one public schoolboy and another (him and flashy) have I am told led to some angry exchanges in the House and it is it seems a charactonym far too close to the truth for him to bear. But if this is really so, then why does he continue to try so hard to live up to his Tom Brown Schoolboy soul mate so much in his actions and deeds?

Cameron in recent weeks in an attempt to rid himself of the omnigaffe and u-turn blues has taken once more to the open mouth before engaging brain persona that had troubled him so when first entering number 10, do you still remember his grovelling speech in the States when he referred to the UK being the USA's "Junior Partner" in the Second World war? or his assertion in Turkey that "Iran has a nuclear weapon"?

Well this time he chose his home ground on which to make a fool of himself. Jimmy Carr's Tax avoidance is of course morally repugnant, and I for one have lost a tremendous amount of respect for the comedian now I know how little he cares for paying his taxes, but was it really David Cameron who was preaching to all who would listen as to how wrong all this was? It was a TV spectacle equivalent to watching Dot Cotton launch an anti smoking campaign for the NHS or listening to Jeremy Clarkson in praise of women only shortlists. We just couldn't take it in as believable.

Here was a man whose father and father in law have both been exposed as tax dodgers engaged in siphoning off money overseas, a man whose party is kept afloat by deputy chairman,  Lord Ashcroft who it is reported has avoided paying over £127m in taxes over a ten year period during which he himself donated £11m to the Tory party! And what about his fellow cabinet members who are also allegedly involved in tax avoidance? Just why oh why the PM started throwing rocks and boulders about in such a home owned greenhouse is anybody's guess. Perhaps like Flashman he is simply happy to preach to his fags as to what they should and shouldn't do whilst privately refusing to acknowledge even to himself that his own position as head boy has been bought completely by outside privilege and favour from a wealthy family.

And so having been caught out and found out by an electorate far more astute than Dr Arnold, the schoolmaster from Thomas Hughes's novel,  Flashman "Call me Dave" reverts to type and starts bullying the oiks. And so it is today that we witness another attack on the young and vulnerable,  labeling them all as workshy benefit scroungers undeserving of our care and thus proposing to cut Housing Benefit to all under 25 years olds.

He of course is talking to a specific audience of voters when he speaks, those who want any safety net completely pulled from underneath the have nots, but it is his knee jerk "nasty party" commentary thats leads sensible people to question whether or not his rantings are even partly sensible?

In one fell swoop he is saying that all parents must keep their young at home until they are 25 unless they can afford to move out, and don't think for one minute that his target is just the workshy, of the 210,000 under 25's claiming Housing Benefit a very high number are already in work and claim benefit as a top up to satisfy the ridiculous levels of private rent to private landlords, creaming it in (and probably avoiding paying tax on the profit) due to the failure of successive Governments to provide decent social housing for our young.

Even within the coalition the questions on what is dodgy policy are stacking up

Tim Leunig, chief economist at the Liberal Democrat Centre Forum think tank, poses five questions for Cameron:

• Does this mean all parents have a legal obligation to house their children until they are 25? What sanctions will be placed on parents who refuse to do this?

• If there is no such obligation, where are low income and unemployed under 25s supposed to live? Will the state provide "young adult homes" akin to children's homes for people whose parents refuse? What about those who have no parents? How much will this cost taxpayers?

• Will parents of people aged under 25 be able to claim housing benefit on a bedroom for their under 25, even if the under 25 has moved out, in case they need to move back? How much will this cost taxpayers? Or will there be a legal obligation on social and private renters to move to a different sized house every time their adult children need to move in, or choose to move out?

• Which parents have a legal obligation to house a married couple aged under 25 in low income work? Do the young couple have to split up and live with their own parents? Can they choose? Do they have to alternate?

• Who has a legal obligation to house a couple under 25 with children?

"I say Flashy" said Osbourne the upper fifths swag carrier "Do you not you think the young pups have had enough" "We have taken all their jobs and wages, without having to crash them out of the dorm" "Nonsense" said Flashman "lets roast them, teach them a damn good lesson once and for all, GROWTH and JOBS they ask for, how dare they, they can fag for the rich and have their privileges docked and if they as much as whimper we will thrash them"

Cameron's proposed cut to Housing Benefit for the under 25's will do nothing to slow down the ever growing rise in the welfare bill. only growth and employment will do that. It is a cut which will punish all under 25's even those who are working and put added pressure on the poorest families to keep them at home. It will add as a break to growing up for our young and make them more dependent not less. It will discourage work if the state is not prepared to reward those making an effort. It will disrupt the lives of thousands of young couples with children who if the wage earner is made redundant are then forced to up and move house  and school to return to live with parents.

Like his comments on taxation Cameron's schoolboy recent rants on Housing Benefit were best left unsaid as they are borne out of indifference, insensitivity and class ignorance.

"Well done Flashman old boy" said Boris, "Lets smash the oiks"

MUSICAL INTERLUDE (COURTESY OF CAPTAIN SKA)

Do you remember that wonderful Ska based "Liar Liar" track (below) put down last year by Captain SKA in appreciation of our wonderful Coalition government?

Well Captain Ska have been very busy since and I hereby gift you for the New Year their full (to date) catalogue.

Their latest release "WHAT'S THE POINT OF NICK CLEGG" is particularly poignant.

LIAR LIAR

SHAME ON YOU

SLIPPING BACK IN TIME 

WHAT'S THE POINT OF NICK CLEGG

Captian SKA and yours truly invites you all to share the above amongst your Facebook friends and email buddies to help them understand what is being done in the coalitions name!

You can also keep up to speed with the latest news and releases via the Captain's website http://www.reverbnation.com/captainska or through their easily found Facebook and twitter pages

A XMAS HOPE AND A NEW YEAR WARNING

Due to far too much Christmas Spirit and even more festivities and family visits approaching I rely this year on Lefty Lucy from the "Ask a Socialist" website http://freedomroad.org/askasocialist/ for providing me with a Xmas message for the blog.

Merry Christmas one and all, see you in the new year which promises to be truly awful, and for my own plagiarised contribution to proceedings After Lucy's great piece on Xmas below I have left you with an only slightly updated version of that infamous Kinnock Speech to preview with trepidation the year ahead of us

Do you hear what I hear? It’s the socialist messages of Christmas 

On the surface, Christmas appears to be an overblown capitalist orgy. Starting as early as October, we’re told to spend, spend, spend. But I’m here to tell you about the Socialist messages that have been smuggled into the Yuletide season. Yes, Christmas is just a delicious, sugar-sprinkled part of the Communist conspiracy.

Christmas history: A primer

Due to the inevitable cross-pollination that comes with colonialism, most of the modern Christmas traditions have their roots in pagan customs. Like Saturnalia, the Roman winter festival which permitted slaves and servants to dine with their masters. It was topsy-turvy day, when you could flout power dynamics and class codes. The social contract was formally abandoned for one night to allow raucous merrymaking among the underclasses. It was sort of the precursor to office holiday parties where you’re allowed to get drunk on egg nog and make fun of your boss.

Caroling can be traced back to the Mummers rituals of old Europe. Somewhere around Solstice time, villagers would travel from house to house, performing songs, dances, and pantomimes in exchange for food or money. They occupied each dwelling in the neighborhood with their drum circles and chants, in a lighthearted, insistent demand for cake and wassail.

"Profiting King Wenceslas" would not make a very good song.

It seems that the classic aspects of the holiday season were born out of traditions of empowering the poor. Don’t tell Goldman Sachs! Then there’s all the messages of caring, sharing and peace on earth. Not exactly the stuff of imperialist profits.

Scrooge is a reformed Capitalist who promises to share the wealth with human and Muppet alike. 
 
But the greatest purveyor of leftist ideals, the most radical agitator of them all, is Jolly Old Saint Nicholas. If you listen to those Bing Crosby tunes, you’ll learn that Santa, like time, is apparently the great equalizer. He brings glad tidings and gifts to all. According to one song, “he doesn’t care if you’re rich or poor, for he loves you just the same.” But I know his heart’s really with the 99%. He wears red from head to toe. He redistributes the wealth, chimney by chimney. He bears a striking resemblance to Karl Marx. And those North Pole elves are probably unionized in a worker collective.

Dreaming of a Red Christmas

Amidst the clanging consumerist bells of Christmas at the mall, there persists a reminder to care for the less fortunate and to extend goodwill to everyone, especially those who are most in need. So as the lefties that we are, let’s take the charitable spirit of the season a step further and think of how we can build a world where nobody needs to depend on individual charity, where not a creature is stirring in the shelters, bunkers, or prisons, because we’ve managed to put an end to war and poverty.

It’s a fantastical dream, but custom allows it this time of year. Let’s dream of a red Christmas. We can be like the holdouts of all the raided Occupy encampments, braving the winter cold because we want social justice and “we won’t go until we get some.”

A new year warning

If David Cameron continues as Prime Minister for another year then, I warn you

I warn you that you will have pain–when healing and relief depend upon payment.

I warn you that you will have ignorance–when talents are untended and wits are wasted, when learning is a privilege and not a right.

I warn you that you will have poverty–when pensions slip and benefits are whittled away by a government that won’t pay in an economy that can’t pay.

I warn you that you will be cold–when fuel charges are used as a tax system that the rich don’t notice and the poor can’t afford.

I warn you that you must not expect work–when many cannot spend, more will not be able to earn. When they don’t earn, they don’t spend. When they don’t spend, work dies.

I warn you not to go into Northampton's darkened streets alone after dark or into the streets in large crowds of protest in the light.

I warn you that you will be quiet–when the curfew of fear and the gibbet of unemployment make you obedient.

I warn you that you will have defence of a sort–with a risk and at a price that passes all understanding.

I warn you that you will be home-bound–when fares and transport bills kill leisure and lock you up

I warn you that you will borrow less–when credit, loans, mortgages and easy payments are refused to people on your melting income.

If Cameron and Clegg continue in this Con Dem Coalition then–

- I warn you not to be ordinary

- I warn you not to be young

- I warn you not to fall ill

- I warn you not to get old.

IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID (part three) AROUND THE WORLD

In this 3rd and final part of our plain English guide to state we are all in we look beyond the UK's shores and identify that he banking crisis of 2008 hit not only the UK, Europe and the US, its aftershocks were felt across the globe, China and India's economies for example may still be growing faster than anyone Else's at present but if their continued growth is to be maintained then they need a market for their goods they are producing abroad and if the rest of the world is in recession and no one is buying those goods then that will have its own negative impact. This "world view" of the economic troubles facing citizens around the globe is also accompanied by a series of infographics which I hope assist with the explanations to enlarge on any diagram just click it

But before we can make total sense of what the current crisis is doing to the economies of different countries and how it affects us here in the UK we have to understand where we as a country sit at the table as a player, and also where we are expected to be in future years based on current and historical growth. In the UK this is critical because as you will see from the infographic below the UK economy is due to contract sharply irrespective of any current downturn.  So irrespective of the recession we are already facing an expected drop in our wealth and position as China and India and others take their place at the top of the manufacturing league.

But Britain's real fragility is only really exposed in its totality when you compare the contraction in our own growth and income with a much broader set of countries including those outside of the top ten above. This next chart therefore shows just how close Cameron and Clegg's cuts without growth programme has put us in comparison with those economies like Greece, Ireland and Italy which are presently close to collapse.

 

 Are you worried yet? well you should be as thanks to Cameron's go it alone stance in Europe we are isolated even further and unlike those in the Euro Zone we have no one to bail us out if the market takes a run on the pound.


The next nettle for us to grasp is how big is the UK's debt when measured against other countries in the world, and what do the credit reference organisations (see below) think about our ability to being able to pay the money back? Just like individuals having a credit reference record, so do countries and the biggest credit reference company to rate countries is a company called Standard and Poor's, ironic really when you consider that our banks seem to have no standards and their actions are making us all poor! Anyhow a reduction in your rating, (ratings go from AAA+ to C-)  just as with any individual makes it more difficult for the country to borrow more money which then pushes up the interest rate that they will have to pay to borrow, which in turn increases the GDP to debt ratio which ends up with Standard and Poor reducing the rating even further, in other words the banks make the debt ridden countries pay more for their borrowing because they say the risk is higher which in turn effects their rating which pushes the interest rate up even further and they go round and round in circles until they can/t afford to borrow from the banks at all, at which time they are in need of a hand out from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) or the European Central Bank. This next graphic is very revealing in not only showing you the ratings but also in understanding who is close the edge and who could be next for the vultures in the City to circle around

As you can see the UK's debt as a % of it GDP (what we earn) is very high at 83% and rising but it is nowhere near some of our other competitors. Ireland and Italy and of course Greece all with 100% + GDP/Debt ratios have all seen runs on their economy recently and have all faced and still may face financial meltdown. All have lost their (A) ratings and have been downgraded to B's and yet Japan which owes a massive 229% of its GDP still hangs on to an A rating (albeit AA-) so why is this?

Well Standards and Poor's take into account a Countries growth projections, and Japan is still seen as a good bet in terms of its manufacturing base, It is also worth noting that the above figures are also based on earlier 2011 forecasts predicting the UK growth figure way above the actual achieved. In reality because the current government are now planning to borrow even more than the last Labour Government planned to borrow if elected, due to increases in welfare payments and a period of flat growth, we now risk the UK's rating also being downgraded.

Standard and Poor's have in fact hinted at a rating downgrading of all countries within the Eurozone, which seems crazy given that there is a vast gulf between the performance of say the Greek and Italian economies when compared with say the German economy, but their excuse is that Germany and others may have to pay more towards any bailout of Greece or Italy and therefore their rating as well as the ratings of more indebted countries also has to be altered.

In other words a butterfly flaps it's wings in Athens and the aftershock is felt all the way over in in Berlin. It is in this context that David Cameron's disastrous walk out at the recent Euro summit last week. simply adds more fuel to the pessimistic forecasters who will now say that without all 27 countries committed to a Euro rescue plan the markets will not be satisfied. the markets then of course say they are not satisfied as they make money out of each and every crisis and the whole merry go round continues. One question of course for David Cameron and the UK is that if we are not going to be there to help back up the Euro in its hour of need then who will come to our aid if there is a run on the pound? also as most of our import and export markets are within the Eurozone then what happens to the British Economy if the Euro goes belly up?

My old comrade Dennis Skinner was right to call Cameron a plonker in the Commons last Wednesday but you have to wonder how foolish the PM must have felt having issued such a ridiculous ultimatum to the other 26 countries. I imagine a David Cameron stood at the door of the meeting room saying "Give me what I want or I will walk" "Au Revoir" and "Aud Weidershen" came the reply "and shut the door as you leave" This followed by "Call me Dave" walking very slowly down the corridor shouting "I mean it, I won't be back" to sounds of cheers coming from behind the now closed door. I imagine he was even asking the airline staff in the departure lounge whether or not anyone had phoned to call him back.

Whatever the truth about those fateful non negotiations, we have now as a country have put the Euro even more at risk, and as a consequence potentially damaged not just the latest Euro rescue plan but also massively weakened our position with our biggest trading partners.

And that's enough bad news for one day and where I will leave it for now, but I do hope this short series has informed and assisted people to get their heads around the core issues surrounding the world recession and also where the UK sits.

I also hope the graphs and infographics have helped, they are all up to date and where possible I have provided the source in order that you can check for yourself the data, but the most frequent comment I hear from people is that they just can't get their heads around the figures and the size of say a billion pounds or how one debt compares with another, so I have saved you my final infographic to give you a comparative view.

The billion pound o gram was produced back in 2009 by the guardian after the banking crisis had first hit in the year before. The deficit between what we earned and spent was £175bn, but how does that compare with say how much we spend a year on trident or the cost of Local Government across the UK well below you have the answer in scale. So now you know that political manipulation by the current government in reducing Local Government spending by a few % here and there is but a drop in the ocean when compared with the cost of bailing out the banks which caused the crisis in the first place. More on the billion pound o gram can be found here http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/nov/27/billion-pound-gram-inormation-beautiful#_