Wednesday 3 August 2011

THE HOLA IN THE EURO ECONOMY

Spain is gloriously hot at present and noticeably "Brit reduced" as ex pats have started to return home (if they can afford it) and UK holiday makers are holidaying at home or outside the Euro Zone (Turkey where you get more Lager for your Lira)

But it is also supposedly in deep economic peril, owing €130b to the euro banks. In fact Spain's debt is second only to Italy at €350b making Greece (€50b) and Ireland (€10b) look relatively well off! Property prices have taken the hit in Spain with Villas now worth less than 50% than there build price. Young people have also paid a heavy price as new jobs and new homes are out of their reach. The "indignants" as they are labelled continue to protest for a better deal.


Wages here remain low, and it is clear that some of the Spanish are staying at home rather than spending any disposable cash in restaurants or bars. But they are still spending and they are still working. The streets are still cleaned, the rubbish is still collected (daily in the summer) and low and behold they still have street lights! Unemployment, particularly among Young people and migrant communities (The Brits) is still very high, but a de centralised government has seen regional parliaments invest in public jobs in order to encourage growth. Growth 2011 is around 0.8% still low but four times the 0.2% offered by the UK and despite the massive debt Spain remains confident on it's repayments. Whilst the worlds economic commentators look to Greece, Portugal, Ireland or even the USA as the next economy to hit the rocks and default on it's payments it seems as if Spain is taking a siesta and saying "preocuparse por el dunero maƱana"

Meanwhile back in Blighty the National Institute for Economist and Social Research the leading economic think tank tells George Osbourne that there will be "No meaningful recovery this year" it further predicts that "Public finances will not improve as quickly as the OBR expects" and the IMF chips in by telling the Government there is "significant risk" to inflation, growth and employment targets.

As predicted earlier on this blog (we are indeed trapped by our predictions) growth has been killed off and the squeeze on public services is effecting spending beyond anything that is desirable.

When I return from holiday the County Council budget deliberations will begin in preparation for next years cuts! On top of the £70m of cuts so far unachieved this year, and I am beginning to wonder what the Tories are going to do? After all when you have turned out the street lights, turned of the safety camera and privatised Social Care, there are not many pips left to squeeze

As British immigrants in Spain scramble for a return back to the UK (the country they left because many said too many immigrants didn't adopt local customs and language!) I wonder if they really know what they are letting themselves in for when returning home?

The Spanish I feel won't be too upset to see many of them leave after all how much "Grande beer por favour Manuel" can a country really take?

If all the Brits do leave then I might migrate over here in the opposite direction, after all the Costa Blanca would be quite nice if it wasn't for all the tourists and the Irish/British Bars.

And an added bonus is that after a few glasses of the local vino too many, at least I would still be able to find my way home at night safely under an ornate street lit Spanish sky


THIS HAS BEEN A CALM BEFORE THE STORM HOLIDAY POSTING FROM THE NORTHAMPTON INDEPENDENT. BEWARE STORMS PREDICTED IN AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER!

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